Conditions have probabilities, such as 1% for diseases. Tests have reliability, such as 90%, and corresponding false-positive rates, such as 10%. If test is positive, most people think that chance of having condition is reliability, such as 90%, not probability divided by reliability, such as 0.9% {ignoring the base rate}.
Mathematical Sciences>Logic>Fallacy>Ambiguity
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Date Modified: 2022.0224